Date: 04/26/2010

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The announcement that gays, their families, and their friends had all been dreading came on Monday, April 12. A frantic signature-gathering campaign had officially failed, and Prop 8, the ban on equal marriage for same-sex couples, had just received a new lease on life.

Back in late 2008, every progressive in California -- and beyond -- was riled up and ready to fight. Celebrations over Obama's presidential victory were dampened by Proposition 8, a state Constitutional amendment that took away the freedom for gay couples to marry.

Instantly, activists mobilized. Dozens of new organizations sprung up to prepare for battle.

The next few months were a barrage of town halls, panel discussions, workshops, protests, and boycotts. Optimism was high since multiple avenues for redress remained: progressives pinned their hopes on a court case that could invalidate Prop 8. And if that didn't work, everyone agreed, Prop 8 should be overturned in 2010.

But sometimes, things have a way of not working out. The lawsuit was a flop, with the state's Supreme Court ruling in favor of Prop 8. By that point, public interest had waned; and when a small group of dedicated activists calling themselves Restore Equality 2010 resolved to fight Prop 8 as soon as possible at the ballot box, support was lacking.

"Regrettably, Prop 8 will remain as a stain on our constitution until at least 2012, and perhaps later," said John Henning, one of the leaders of Restore Equality 2010, after his group failed to qualify for the 2010 ballot.

The future of Restore Equality 2010 remains unsure. They needed to gather nearly a million signatures by April 12 in order to challenge Prop 8 in 2010. For now, consensus among its leadership is to move forward with a 2012 campaign -- but there's no indication that anybody knows what that means.

"We're certainly open to working with Equality California and Courage Campaign," said RE2010 spokesman Ian Hart. Despite failing to make the ballot, RE2010 could bring important lessons, infrastructure, and mailing lists in an eventual 2012 campaign -- not to mention an army of around 1,000 volunteers.

"We're the only statewide effort that's run a signature-gathering effort on this issue," Hart pointed out. If it's true that people learn more from mistakes than from successes, then RE2010 could be an invaluable resource.

Currently, there are no concrete plans for RE2010 to participate in the 2012 campaign -- but that's because a 2012 campaign doesn't exist yet. That's not to say that major statewide organizations aren't hard at work: Equality California has been running an ambitious door-to-door campaign ever since Marriage Equality Director Marc Solomon came onboard. Courage Campaign, meanwhile, put out a statement commending RE2010's attempt -- basically saying, "nice try."

It's not clear why the public enthusiasm for fighting Prop 8 waned, but the signs of disorganization were present in the immediate aftermath of the election. Despite drawing huge crowds to weekend protests, it was clear that leaders weren't sure how to capture and direct the sudden surge in support. "It was no one's responsibility and everyone's responsibility" to maintain momentum, said RE2010's Ian Hart.

"If anyone was organized that weekend, it was the socialists," he added, referring to the high profile of far-left groups at the protests.

Not long after, follow-up actions such as "Day Without a Gay" fizzled. A year after Prop 8 passed, Join the Impact ceased updating its website.

But even larger disappointments came in the form of a bitter, drawn-out battle over the timing of a campaign to overturn Prop 8. Activists clashed over the 2010-or-2012 question, and the tone of a community summit in the Central Valley turned bitter and angry.

In the spring of 2009, a schism had developed in California's LGBT political community over the right year to challenge Prop 8. It was a worrisome development: if a united community had been unable to stop Prop 8, how could a divided community hope to repeal it?

Gradually, the opinions of political analysts began to turn against 2010. The research was clear, most analysts said: 2010 wasn't a winning year.

Then came two major blows to the 2010 proponents: in August of 2009, Equality California yielded to the expertise of analysts and developed a three-year plan to challenge Prop 8. Courage Campaign waited a bit longer, but by late November, the organization had committed to a 2012 repeal as well. It was a difficult move for Courage Campaign, as its membership had overwhelmingly voted in favor of a 2010 repeal just a few months earlier.

Restore Equality 2010 was largely on their own. The group was well-organized and politically connected, but with little no money or backing from the major statewide organizations, there was little hope that they could make the ballot.

RE2010 won't say how close -- or far -- they were from collecting enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. "We're not releasing the number," said spokesman Ian Hart. But, he added, for the 2012 campaign to be successful, "it's going to take many more volunteers and organizations."

"EQCA has to step up and lead this or they need to get out of the way," he added.

But EQCA has been charging full-tilt towards a 2012 campaign for some time, with new offices in strategic districts and regular canvassing events. "We have specific numeric targets" for conversations with voters said EQCA Marriage Director Marc Solomon.

The organization is planning a massive statewide canvassing event on May 22. Thousands are expected to participate around California, including Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The date is no accident: it's Harvey Milk Day.

"Harvey Milk was really good at focusing the effort," said Solomon. Rather than quibbling over dates, EQCA followed Harvey's example and focused on preparing their infrastructure for 2012.

Whether EQCA makes use of RE2010's resources remains to be seen. EQCA is already in talks with Love Honor Cherish, one of the groups that backed a 2010 campaign, and is open to conversations with RE2010. "We're all in this together," Solomon said.

For his part, RE2010's Ian Hart is ready to continue the fight. "We are gaining votes every day," he said, referring to two recent polls that show unexpectedly high support for marriage equality. "We have the votes now. All we have to do is pull the trigger."

Of course, any time a measure to the ballot, it risks losing. But as Hart put it, "we're going to have to risk disappointment again if we're going to win this back."